Prediction markets suggest no recession?

[snousle]

The Intrade prediction market has shown a precipitous drop in the value of contracts that pay off if there's a recession in '08. In other words, most traders in this prediction market (who are putting up actual money on the question rather than merely blathering about it) believe, in aggregate, that a recession has less than a 30% chance of occuring in '08.

So... all of you that are so sure that we're on the edge of a recession, this is your chance to not just prove that you were right, but to make a lot of money on your prediction. Seriously. If you really, truly believe that there will be a recession in '08, you can triple your investment within a year for almost no effort. Not to mention earning unlimited gloating rights for your prescience.

Any takers?

Anyone? Anyone?

Comments

[qnetter]

The bottom line is that it doesn't matter whether or not we are in a recession. Growth has slowed so far that jobs, hours and wages are being lost. Whether we have .5% growth or .2% decline matters very little.

[snousle.livejournal.com]

So, part of the reason I'm a crank about the economy is that I'm ultimately of the school that believes that growth is unsustainable and that the right goal is to not just stop growth, but deliberately receede the whole economy to a sustainable level. I don't know if this is possible to do deliberately without massive carnage, but I am pretty sure that if it's imposed on the economy it would be worse than if it were planned. So from that perspective a recession could be interpreted as good news, although in practice people suffer.

So for the most part, I grudgingly accept the notion that growth is "desirable" at least in the short term. And I also recognize that per-capita, GDP may be falling. We are certanly near a recession, but even so, the anxiety I'm seeing in response to this is out of proportion to the magnitude of the problem.

I'm trying hard to avoid posturing arguments of "this is good" versus "this is bad" because that doesn't mean anything. The message I'm trying to get across is, there are lots of opportunities out there that should not be discounted because things are "going to hell", because the disruptions that are happening now are fairly low key by even recent historical standards. There are lots of reasons for individuals to believe that their life will get better rather than worse, and people shouldn't be intimidated by doom-and-gloom media coverage.

[furr-a-bruin.livejournal.com]

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." -- Edward Abbey

[kevynjacobs.livejournal.com]

> I'm ultimately of the school that believes that growth is unsustainable and that the right goal is to not just stop growth, but deliberately receede the whole economy to a sustainable level.

Ooooh, HERESY!

I came to that same conclusion in my college macroeconomics class, and nearly flunked.

Interesting to see we share that same core idea.