Prediction markets suggest no recession?

[snousle]

The Intrade prediction market has shown a precipitous drop in the value of contracts that pay off if there's a recession in '08. In other words, most traders in this prediction market (who are putting up actual money on the question rather than merely blathering about it) believe, in aggregate, that a recession has less than a 30% chance of occuring in '08.

So... all of you that are so sure that we're on the edge of a recession, this is your chance to not just prove that you were right, but to make a lot of money on your prediction. Seriously. If you really, truly believe that there will be a recession in '08, you can triple your investment within a year for almost no effort. Not to mention earning unlimited gloating rights for your prescience.

Any takers?

Anyone? Anyone?

Comments

[snousle.livejournal.com]

YOU CAN HAS ECONOMIC EVALUATION.

The DJI is what it is; it's just a stock index, and as far as I know there is nothing in its formulation that is overtly or deliberately deceptive. So it is a basic indicator, it's just that it's not the sole or even primary indicator of overall American well-being.

To say "Dow Jones up, good, Dow Jones down, bad" is common, but silly, and is rightfully dismissed in that context. I don't know why the media fetishizes that number, and not, say, the Gini coefficient. That still does not invalidate the usefuless of the index to those who trade stocks, even if they are a distict minority.