Prediction markets suggest no recession?

[snousle]

The Intrade prediction market has shown a precipitous drop in the value of contracts that pay off if there's a recession in '08. In other words, most traders in this prediction market (who are putting up actual money on the question rather than merely blathering about it) believe, in aggregate, that a recession has less than a 30% chance of occuring in '08.

So... all of you that are so sure that we're on the edge of a recession, this is your chance to not just prove that you were right, but to make a lot of money on your prediction. Seriously. If you really, truly believe that there will be a recession in '08, you can triple your investment within a year for almost no effort. Not to mention earning unlimited gloating rights for your prescience.

Any takers?

Anyone? Anyone?

Comments

[beastbriskett.livejournal.com]

It's all a thought experiment for me.
Your original point of dissonance between facts and spin is sound, whatever information you trust.
If the economy tanks, people will stay home and watch more TV and DVDs. If not, there will be more capital to fund indie projects. I'll work regardless.

[snousle.livejournal.com]

By amazing coincidence, Tyler Cowen tackled exactly this issue today. An interesting contrast to the Harper's article!

[beastbriskett.livejournal.com]

Thanks! It is a nice contrast, and gives me a better-rounded take on how economic voodoo is conjured up. i like to look at the big picture before I decide what to trust.

Also by coincidence, I found this story about another spin on this country's worries :)
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0229405520080503?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

[snousle.livejournal.com]

Groan... OMG, you're right, we're DOOMED!!!