Prediction markets suggest no recession?

[snousle]

The Intrade prediction market has shown a precipitous drop in the value of contracts that pay off if there's a recession in '08. In other words, most traders in this prediction market (who are putting up actual money on the question rather than merely blathering about it) believe, in aggregate, that a recession has less than a 30% chance of occuring in '08.

So... all of you that are so sure that we're on the edge of a recession, this is your chance to not just prove that you were right, but to make a lot of money on your prediction. Seriously. If you really, truly believe that there will be a recession in '08, you can triple your investment within a year for almost no effort. Not to mention earning unlimited gloating rights for your prescience.

Any takers?

Anyone? Anyone?

Comments

[h0gwash.livejournal.com]

Stocks have treated me well in the past, but I'm still scared of the stock market.

I think the majority of the players in the stock market are not looking for long term $$$, they are looking for short term $$$. With the news that there was no recession in Q1 coming out at the end of April, you would expect short term predictions on a 2008 recession to drop in the first part of May.