Prediction markets suggest no recession?

[snousle]

The Intrade prediction market has shown a precipitous drop in the value of contracts that pay off if there's a recession in '08. In other words, most traders in this prediction market (who are putting up actual money on the question rather than merely blathering about it) believe, in aggregate, that a recession has less than a 30% chance of occuring in '08.

So... all of you that are so sure that we're on the edge of a recession, this is your chance to not just prove that you were right, but to make a lot of money on your prediction. Seriously. If you really, truly believe that there will be a recession in '08, you can triple your investment within a year for almost no effort. Not to mention earning unlimited gloating rights for your prescience.

Any takers?

Anyone? Anyone?

Comments

Alas

[arkanjil.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure of anything, and recession always seemed a bit simplistic for what, well, what may come. Possibly, maybe. By my lights, it's all seemingly ready to come crashing down at a moments notice- but markets are tricky things,a nd the power of hope is strong indeed.

Which is probably for the best, all things considered. I will try to be more circumspect about what I post or at least how I present it, tho.